Adam Roseman Online

According to an article by Adam Roseman, China’s water conservation investments are projected to reach $615 billion.

The country’s Minister of Water Resources Chen Lei explained that the amount spent between 2001-2005 was $55.97 billion, and over the past five years; $107.9 billion. Chen added that the expanding investment reveals the government’s dedication to transforming the nation’s current water infrastructure.

Chen explained that the investment is aimed at strengthening the nation in the face of droughts and floods, which have been affecting various regions throughout the country. Projects will include boosting 15,900 small reservoirs over the next two years, as well as another 2,721 larger reservoirs by 2015.

According to a newsletter article by Adam Roseman of ARC China, it is definitely possible for China’s banking economy to exceed that of the U.S by 2023.

PricewaterhouseCoopers’s chief economist John Hawksworth has stated that current banking leaders should accept the shift in power and begin to prepare by acquiring shares of emerging markets’ unbanked populations.

“With populations of well over a billion each, access to markets like China and India is critical for growth,” he said.

Adam Roseman writes “Chinese banks already dominate global rankings by market value, and some lenders have already secured heavy emerging market exposure to tap into booming demand for financial products from young and increasingly wealthy populations.

“Banks in the fast-growing emerging markets (E7) of China, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey have been relatively shielded from the financial crisis that brought many western peers to their knees and sent asset values plunging.”

Hawksworth also noted “The E7 doesn’t need the G7 for capital, decision making or consumers, so the established economies will have to make a strong case to convince new economy policy makers of the benefit of inviting foreign competition in.”

According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Science, consumer spending in the retail sector in China is expected to double by 2015.

ARC China is an investment firm that focuses on China. In their newsletter, Adam Roseman states “Given that China’s investment-driven economic growth cannot be sustained indefinitely, the domestic consumer market will be the key to future economic growth in China. Indeed, as fears of a double dip recession hit the world, the one consumer segment that has defied analysts and kept on spending at pre-recession levels are Chinese women.”

The article goes on the  say: “3,000 women consumers in 12 cities in China were recently surveyed by China Market Research Group, and 85 percent of them said they expected to pay more in the next six months than in the last six. Despite recent food inflation, they remain optimistic about their own careers and ability of the government to navigate the country through crisis.”

The coastal cities of China have become some of the most crowded, popular investment regions in the world today. However, the increase in prices and tough competition are forcing private equity firms to dig deeper in an effort to find good investment opportunities.

Some of the most popular areas include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzehn. Numerous companies such as ARC Investment Partners with Adam Roseman have seen the potential in China, and have made it one of their primary investments.

Derek Sulger of Lunar Capital, a Shanghai-based firm, says, “By and large, Eastern China is home to more investments that are larger, and more mature companies, so it’s logical that a disproportionate focus develops on these regions.”

The negative effects can be felt by many, though. Zheng Song of MDC explained: “Even some of the top-tier fast food chains feel that the rent in Beijing/Shanghai is too high and it is too difficult and competitive to make money. They also plan on expanding to second and third tier cities in the next few years.” For this reason, many firms have begun to shift their focus towards the mainland.

In a fascinating recent article on Bloomberg.com, NYU professor Nouriel Roubini discusses the global economy.  While he explains that it is possible that the world economy will see “anemic but OK” global growth, or perhaps even more optimistic scenarios, he says that we may, instead, see stunted growth from 2013.

He discusses the slowdown in China, which is a focus of companies like ARC China with Adam Roseman, the “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S. and many other factors influencing the global outlook.

The article, by Shamim Adam, is certainly worth a read by anyone in the financial sector or anyone interested in global economic issues.

Adam Roseman, Founder and Managing Patner of ARC China, recently wrote about the 3^rd Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability that was held in Stockholm, Sweden.  Participating in the event were many distinguished leaders, including the former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland.

During the conference, Brundtland said, “I think the leadership in China knows that the pattern of development in China cannot be coal-based, oil-based, transport-based in private cars, so they talk about green economy, because they know they have different energy resources, they have to use solar and they are entering into changing all these technologies and implementing them.”

Roseman explained that the reliance on coal as the main source of energy in China is expected to change in the future. He explained how they plan to do so, and what the cost will be to the country.  He concluded by saying,  “China is taking an aggressive stance to reduce its environmental impact and has all the credentials to serve in the future as a model for other countries wishing to follow a sustainable path of development.”

Adam Roseman, Founder and Managing Partner of ARC China recently discussed the latest IMF official forecasts which show China’s economy surpassing America’s in real terms in 2016.

China’s GDP has increased above what was expected for the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China.  The GDP has increased by 9.7% in the first quarter of 2011, which is higher than the target that China set for full year 2011.

The largest contributor to this growth has been consumer spending, with 5.9 percentage points out of the 9.7% growth. Urban fixed asset investments have also surged. In addition, the producer price index rose in China by 7.3% in March from the year before, and this is the highest that it has risen in 30 months.

Premier Wen Jiabao has made it known that one of his main goals is to keep the price levels stable for the coming year.

Adam Roseman concludes by explaining that, “ARC China anticipates that China’s economy will reach equilibrium between economic growth and growth in prices by the end of this year with stabilization continuing in 2012. The march of China’s economy to pass that of the US by 2016 should be viewed as the major economic story over the next decade.”

In his weekly newsletter as part of ARC Investment Partners, Founder and Managing Partner Adam Roseman writes about China’s inflation rate. He explains that many have been concerned about the inflation rate there as a result of the recent financial crisis.

The prediction from the price monitoring center under the National Development and Reform Commission is that China’s inflation will ease in the second half of the year.  As the price monitoring center said, “At present, China’s aggregate demand and supply are basically balanced, so prices will not rise to a larger extent than before.”

Adam Roseman explained that ARC China expects the CPI growth rate to peak in June and then to fall by December.  Roseman pointed out in the article that China has taken serious steps to curb inflation. As Roseman explained, “People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has raised banks’ Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) six times in 2010 and three times so far in 2011. It is now at nearly 20% for most banks.”

As Ashton Tan explains in an article posted at the ARC China website in March entitled, “Looking Off the Beaten Track,” it’s often a good idea to look off the beaten path for the best investments.

As Derek Sulger, a founding partner at Shanghai-based Lunar Capital explains, “By and large, Eastern China is home to more investments that are larger, and more mature companies, so it’s logical that a disproportionate focus develops on these regions.”

More companies are looking further afield, trying to find investments that others haven’t yet discovered.  As the article explains, Adam Roseman, CEO and Founder of ARC China, believes that it’s important to be on site to manage businesses and to find potential deals. As Roseman explains, “The key really is spending time in those regions and not sitting in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, and waiting for deals to cross your desk.”

ARC China manages to find these interesting investments by putting individuals in the target areas to build the brand name and to help with deals, and by working with third party finders who look for promising opportunities.

As part of the ARC China monthly newsletter, Adam Roseman, ARC China Founder and Managing Director, explained that China’s economy will surpass America’s in 2016.  He explains that this is actually ten years earlier than was forecast under current exchange rates.

The China GDP has increased by 9.7% just in the first quarter of 2011 from 2010, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.  This is higher than China’s target that they set for 8% for the full year 2011.

As Adam Roseman: ARC China explained, “Consumer spending, among the three engines of China’s economic growth, has contributed the most to the first quarter’s GDP growth, at 5.9 percentage points out of the 9.7 percent growth. Retail sales surged 16.3 percent year on year in the first quarter.”

In conclusion of his article, Roseman explained that ARC China anticipates equilibrium between economic growth and price growth for the Chinese economy by the end of 2011.  They assume that stabilization will continue in 2012, as reported by Adam Roseman. ARC China concludes by saying that, “The march of China’s economy to pass that of the US by 2016 should be viewed as the major economic story over the next decade.”