As part of the ARC China monthly newsletter, Adam Roseman, ARC China Founder and Managing Director, explained that China’s economy will surpass America’s in 2016. He explains that this is actually ten years earlier than was forecast under current exchange rates.
The China GDP has increased by 9.7% just in the first quarter of 2011 from 2010, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This is higher than China’s target that they set for 8% for the full year 2011.
As Adam Roseman: ARC China explained, “Consumer spending, among the three engines of China’s economic growth, has contributed the most to the first quarter’s GDP growth, at 5.9 percentage points out of the 9.7 percent growth. Retail sales surged 16.3 percent year on year in the first quarter.”
In conclusion of his article, Roseman explained that ARC China anticipates equilibrium between economic growth and price growth for the Chinese economy by the end of 2011. They assume that stabilization will continue in 2012, as reported by Adam Roseman. ARC China concludes by saying that, “The march of China’s economy to pass that of the US by 2016 should be viewed as the major economic story over the next decade.”
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